The Race
Il Lombardia, seen by many as the last big monument of the season although Paris-Tours does take place on Sunday. A classic for the climbers to take each other on.
The Route
Has been flipped around, with last year’s race starting in Como and ending in Bergamo, and this year’s race taking the reverse route. It has 4,00 meters of climbing – making it the most difficult momentum – and places the climbing right through 247 kilometres. The first 40 or so kilometres stay flat before the Colle Gallo, and there’s a similar distance before the ascent of the Colle Brianza.
The race will now be deep into the Lombardy Hills, with a sharp descent from Onno into the first of the day’s iconic ascents, the renowned Madonna del Ghisallo. It’s 8.6km at 6.2% - a climb that wouldn’t be out of place in a Grand Tour – especially given there’s a flat section in the middle.
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There’s little respite before the Colma di Sormano, which is 5.5km at 6.2%, but really only a prelude as towards the end of the climb the riders will already see the Colma di Sormano. It’s 1.92km at an average of 15%, which says all that’s needed to know about the climb.
The descent into Nesso will be crucial – as despite being more than 50km away from the finish, there’s time for attacks to drop suffering riders. They then race across the shores of the Lago di Como.
The last 20 kilometres begin with the climb of Civiglio, a twisting and turning affair for 4.2km that averages 9.8% and has a maximum of 14%. There’s only 17 kilometres to the finish, and afterwards one drives straight into the San Fermo della Battaglia – 2.7 kilometres at 7.2% but with a steepest stretch of 10% just before the top.
The Finish
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Is intensely technical and benefits a good descender, as Vincenzo Nibali put to his advantage when he took the 2015 edition over a very similar course. That can be seen below:
The Winner
Will be a climber who is excellent at descending, and adept in the wet too. A sprint may also be helpful.
The Contenders
Vincenzo Nibali knows the route like the back of his hand and has been in good form leading upto this, recovering from his late Vuelta crash with a second at the Giro dell'Emilia behind his team-mate Giovanni Visconti, and he opted to miss Thursday’s Milano-Torino to then go and do a final recon, perhaps an ominous sign. He would want to win solo, but he did take the first serious stage of the Vuelta with a sprint.
There are an absolute army of those who are looking to attack him, two mainly coming from the hugely powerful units of Team Sky and Quick-Step. Sky have Michal Kwiatkowski, Wout Poels, Diego Rosa, Gianni Moscon, Sergio Henao Mikel Nieve and Mikel Landa, any of whom can win; Wout Poels, a former winner of Leige, was sixth at Milano-Torino and could be their best shot along with Moscon, who didn’t cut much ice there but who has been so powerful.
Rigoberto Uran took a fine solo win at Torino, and has three runner up finishes in this event to his name. With Hugh Carthy, Davide Formolo, and Davide Villella all in support he is one of the leading contenders here.
Thibaut Pinot has been slowly but steadily preparing for this with a second-place finish at T re Valli Varesine before his eighth at Torino. He appears to have gone under the radar here
Julian Alaphilippe, Dan Martin and Philippe Gilbert are here for Quick-Step and Martin, on his last ride for the team, catches the eye having been 11th at Torino. Alaphilippe was exceptional at the Worlds, but he was a little lacklustre on his first race after when well beaten at Torino and one worries if this will be too hard for Gilbert. Don’t forget Gianluca Brambilla and Bob Jungels either.
Tom Dumoulin is also here, over a course which shouldn’t hold any fears and with a pretty hefty squad to support him with Warren Barguil, Michael Matthews, Wilco Kelderman, Sam Oomen, and Wilco Kelderman.
Finally, Orica are lucky to have Adam Scott won at Clasica San Sebastian in 2015 and was second in Milano-Torino. Esteban Chavez, who won this last year, missed out with injury for the Aussie unit.
