Yesterday’s Stage - Julian Alaphilippe continued Quick-Step’s incredible year and laid down his overall claims early with a fine win, beating fellow contender and favourite Primoz Roglic (Lotto-Jumbo) in a sprint after the two broke away from the rest of the field in what was a thrilling finale.
The two-attacked midway up the day’s final climb, the Elakno Gaina, and quickly jumped clear of the peloton, taking Movistar’s Nairo Quintana with them. The Colombian was left behind however on the steep but very punchy ascent and soon the front pairing managed to get a gap of 23 seconds over the peak, a big advantage considering the extremely tight and technical descent. They were not for catching and when Roglic led into the last 200 meters Alaphilippe was always favourite to take the win and yellow jersey in a short sprint.
Both have given themselves big chances at the yellow jersey, especially Roglic given his proficiency against the clock, although there’s a long way to go and the toughest terrain comes towards the end of the week.
Behind, a group of 11 main favourites, led by Astana’s Pello Bilbao, crossed the line 23 seconds down, including Gorka Izagirre (Bahrain-Merida) Emanuel Buchmann (Bora-Hansgrohe) Patrick Konrad (Bora-Hansgrohe), Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale), Nairo Quintana and Mikel Landa (Movistar), Rigoberto Uran (EF Education First) and Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo). They keep themselves well in the hunt for overall honours but Vincenzo Nibali and Ion Izaguirre (Bahrain-Merida) lost 51 seconds along with Michael Woods (EF Education) and the rest of the field were further behind still, including all of BMC’s team after being caught behind several crashes, one of which took out leader Damiano Caruso. Sky’s Michal Kwiatkowski was also a big loser on the day, ceding 3:57 to Alaphlippe.
Today’s Stage - Zarautz/Bermeo (166.7 km) - A coastal route that’s right on the precipice of Northern Spain that bears a very similar finale to yesterday -if anything giving a big sense of Déjà vu to the riders. After leaving Zarautz the route huge the coastline directly for 90 kilometres with an uncategorised climb near Itxaspe before rolling roads which include the first climb of the day, the third category Naxitua (2.4km at 8.3%, because of the Basque country).
There are more rolling roads through the sprint at Kortezubi before we reach the 100-kilometre mark and then things get hard. The Almika-Sollube is a proper straightener, 4.7 kilometres at 9.3%, and then after the descent – which doesn’t come straight away – the field loops back in to head towards Bermeo, which was actually passed earlier in the stage.
There are plenty of climbs but the ascent to Jata (2km at 6.6%) is the only categorised one before he day’s finale.
The Finale
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The San Pelato, which is listed as 3.4km at 8.3%, is very similar to yesterday’s closing climb to expect to see the same sort of racing – that is all out action at double-figure percentages - before what’s just a 6.6-kilometre drop towards the line. The official figure is a tad misleading – there are two descents in the climb which mean there are three sections, and the last two are 1km at an average of 13.3% and 1.2km at an average of 12.5%.
The road’s width and surface will be similar to today, and once again a chase will be very hard from the top.
The Contenders - Yesterday’s stage led to big gaps already and a breakaway could have a chance with more than enough riders not presenting a threat. Lotto and Quick-Step look the likeliest chasers but if a rider gets into the break from those groups then we could see two races.
In the event of the peloton contesting the finish then Alaphllippe and Roglic would have to be favourites followed by the 11 riders who came 23 seconds behind, some of whom will be more alert today.
Contenders in a break are much harder to predict but BMC must be chasing stage wins now and Damiano Caruso, third in Tirreno, would be really interesting if his shoulder is OK after crashing in the finale today. He was set to be the leader before today.
Team Sky were also surprisingly off the pace and have a number of potential candidates. Michal Kwiatkowski was particularly disappointing, losing nearly four minutes whilst their best-place rider (David De La Cruz) is 29th so it’s unlikely they’ll want to sit in the peloton all day. If we are talking local connections then Johnathan Catstroviejo is from Getxo (nearby finishing town) whilst Omar Fraile, brilliant on the last day of Paris-Nice, catches the eye for Astana and is also a local of sorts, hailing from Santurtzi. He was beaten only in a sprint of the 113km stage around Nice.
Movistar have their two men close enough to the lead in the shape of Landa and Quintana but they do not have the obligation of pulling all day for a result and Carlos Betancur was fifth in the GP Miguel Indurain, his best performance all season.
